Housing is Widely Exceeding Early Expectations, but Job Market Remains a Big Concern

  • Home prices are expected to grow 3.7% in 2020, according to a survey of 104 economists and real estate experts conducted by Pulsenomics and Zillow. Three months ago, panelists expected a 0.3% decline.
  • Panelists were also asked when they next expected multifamily housing starts to meet or exceed their pre-pandemic, January level of 619,000 (SAAR). A majority (55%) said that would happen no later than 2023.
  • Experts were far less bullish on a quick labor market recovery, giving just 44% odds that the unemployment rate would match its pre-pandemic low of 3.5% by the end of the decade.

Expert predictions for near-term home price growth improved markedly in the summer compared to the spring as the housing market powered past initial pandemic challenges and grew into an economic bright spot. But even as the housing market remains on largely steady ground, a full labor market recovery could remain out of reach for a decade or more, according to a Zillow survey of dozens of economists and experts nationwide.

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