The pandemic has already caused a mini-exodus out of New York City, and with lower taxes, lower interest rates, and — for the wealthiest among us — higher earnings thanks to stock market gains and some helpful bailouts, the housing market is roaring outside of urban America.
What will be the impact on real estate here, once the pandemic is finally in the rear view mirror?
That’s a question UBS real estate analyst Jonathan Woloshin took to task in an August 28th note to clients titled “Covid and real estate: a simple question with a complex answer.”
One of the key takeaways in the report was forced lockdowns had those who could leave New York City ultimately leave it, if even just temporarily. And then massive and continuous protests have turned those people off into returning. Another caveat not mentioned in the report is a New York public school system that is becoming more focused on equity of outcomes for students and, in some districts, looking to do away with gifted and talented programs that allow for low and middle-income parents to send their kids to the best New York has to offer its public school students.